FROM
MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER REPORTS "For
nearly a decade, recycling has decimated aggregate volume growth in the
traditional waste management business, while regulatory foot dragging
has allowed excess (low-cost) capacity to persist. However, the tides
are now finally turning, in our view, as recycling (as well as competing
waste-to-energy capacity) has shown distinct indications of leveling off." "[R]ecycling
has long been the enemy of the solid waste industry, stealing volumes
otherwise headed for landfills." "This
year's [Biocycle] survey continued to provide evidence that recycling
has reached a saturation point in the U.S. and should therefore not be
nearly as large a threat to solid-waste companies going forward as it
has been over the past decade." "...[L]ess
recycling should lead to accelerating disposal volumes, which in turn
should lead to priving leverage for landfill operators. Primary beneficiaries
of such a trend, in our view would be highly vertically integrated waste
companies like Waste Management and Allied Waste, which remain our favorites
in the group." "Recycling
is a competitive threat to disposal, the primary business of publicly
traded solid waste companies." "[R]ecycling
in the U.S. is leveling off after a decade of strong growth. Less recycling
growth is positive for landfill operators such as Waste Management and
Allied Waste - both rated Strong Buy." "Although
the publicly traded waste companies derive a very small portion of their
revenues from it, recycling is primarily seen as a competitive threat
because it steals volumes away from landfills, their most promising assets.
Therefore, we view any declines in recycling as bullish for these stocks." "Recycling
is a competitive threat to disposal, the primary business of publicly
traded solid -waste companies."
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